Early May Update: Technicals
XMRBTC daily chart paints a bleak picture of Monero’s recent price action. It has been all downhill since April 1st and XMR is now hanging around the previous support zone with most of the market waiting for a bounce from this zone. RSI is oversold and there needs to be an injection of volume so Monero can lift up and enter back in the ranging zone, its horizontal channel it has been living in since December 2018.
Trading volume is relatively low for its marketcap – reported volume in the last 24hrs is $39m and “Real 10” (trading volume on the exchanges that provably prevent wash trading) volume is much lower – $4.8m. This means that XMR’s liquidity is markedly inflated and its trading volume is overstated by 8x which is comparatively ok ratio.
Moreover, XMR has a decent buy support, according to coinmarketbook.cc. Buy support is measuring sum of buy orders at 10% distance from the highest bid price. This way we can eliminate fake buy walls and whale manipulation and see the real interest of the market in a certain coin. XMR currently has a $4.5m of buy orders measured with this method, which sets XMR buy support/market cap ratio at 0.43%, a wide-market average. Bitcoin and Ethereum have a 0.27% and 0.28% ratios, respectively. This novel metric indicates there are a lot of manipulations, inflated liquidity and fake orders on all crypto trading pairs, including XMR pairs.
Monero’s sentiment score, measured by the market analytics firm Predicoin, paints a neutral picture.
Predicoin wraps its analysis up into a single simple indicator known as the SentScore, which is formed from the combination of five different verticals:
- Social Media
- Technical Analysis
Interpreting the SentScore’s scale:
- 0 to 2.5: very negative
- 2.5 to 4.0: somewhat negative zone
- 4.0 to 6.0: neutral zone
- 6.0 to 7.5: somewhat positive zone
- 7.5 to 10: very positive
Monero currently has a Sentscore of 4.0, with Twitter and news buzz generally flatlining while Reddit activity has notably decreased.
Early May Update: Fundamentals
- Monero has been added to one of the most popular crypto wallets – Exodus.
- A technical conference in privacy and financial technology, Monero Konferenco is scheduled for June as a first Monero focused conference. The Konferenco is funded by generous donors from the Monero community, designed to disseminate scientific and technical results in privacy and financial technologies like censorship-resistant digital cash.
Below is our long-term forecast where we cover general market movements and sentiment shifts before delving deeper into the specific predictions for XMR.
When Monero launched, conversations around Bitcoin’s on-chain privacy features caused a spree of privacy-focused projects to enter the digital asset market.
Originally named Bitmonero, Monero emerged as a privacy-focused cryptocurrency based on CryptoNote, a reference implementation for new altcoins many of which were later exposed as fraudulent projects. Monero’s payment anonymity has garnered significant attention from a panoply of crypto-curious persons.
Monero runs a proof-of-work algorithm called CryptoNight, which is friendly toward CPU and GPU mining. New blocks are added to the chain on average every two minutes.
Mining difficulty adjusts after each new block. Monero’s privacy enhancements come from CryptoNote which masks sender identities via ring signature mixing and offers single-use keys to make transactions untraceable.
Year in Review
Monero experienced a spectacular ecosystem growth in 2018, greatly improved usability, and adopted critical protocol enhancements.
In the beginning of the year, ASICs were detected on the network. The hashrate rose dramatically, until it was estimated that 80-90% of the network was specialized hardware, posing a significant danger to the security of the network.
The PoW modification was implemented in the scheduled April 2018 protocol upgrade, and successfully managed to boot existing ASICs off the network. A second PoW modification was implemented in the scheduled protocol upgrade of October as a precaution and deterrent.
The most significant fundamental improvement of the year was Bulletproofs. Bulletproofs, which were successfully audited by two renowned security firms (Kudelski and Quarkslab) and one independent researcher (Benedikt Bünz, the lead author of the Bulletproof’s paper), are a type of range proofs that are substantially more efficient than the now-deprecated Borromean range proofs.
Range proofs ensure (with clever mathematics) that a malicious attacker cannot inflate the coin supply by sending a negative amount of money, leaving themselves with a positive balance.
The year 2018 also saw the release of multi-signature transactions on mainnet.
Many new features were added to the official CLI wallet, such as ability to encrypt the 25 word mnemonic seed, the ability to lock an output, subaddresses and subaccounts, numerous features that improve coin control, and many others too numerous to list. The GUI wallet received a user interface overhaul and many user interface optimizations, greatly improving user experience.
XMR Roadmap for 2019
There is no real roadmap, because Monero is a working product trying to adopt new tech as soon as it is usable and safe to use.
Official roadmap of Monero is pretty scarce with information, they listed only two items on their to do list: Second-layer solutions for speed and scalability and Additional MRL research papers.
Second layer solution is the open-source project, called Tari, will make it possible to program and issue non-fungible assets like loyalty points, in-game items, and concert tickets over the blockchain. The tokens will function similarly to ERC-721 tokens in the ethereum network (e.g. CryptoKitties), enabling users to take ownership of unique digital assets.
“Tari will fundamentally change the way we interact with digital assets,” said co-founder Naveen Jain. “We are building an amazing team to steward the most useful decentralized platform in existence, empowering anyone to issue, manage, use and transfer their digital assets.”
Though not the first project to use blockchain technology to allow users to trade digital assets, co-founders Jain, Riccardo “fluffypony” Spagni, and Dan Teree claim that it is the first to be optimized for this specific use case, making it ideal for businesses who desire to use it at scale.
Tari will be structured as a sidechain to the main monero network, enabling users to merge-mine its token with XMR.
General Market Movements and Sentiment Shift
The downfall of altcoins that were mainstream media darlings at the start of the year, XMR among them, can be attributed, in part, to novice investors getting scared off once the bear market kicked in with a vengeance. Every resurgence of bitcoin in recent period, was met with the, for the most part, inability of altcoins to rally with it. Reason for that can be rookie investors learning from their mistakes, while smart money that was previously watching from the sidelines has begun to enter into bitcoin.
These entities weren’t about to buy BTC when it was trading at an all-time high, but they’ll take a look now, having missed the boat the first time around. None of them, it seems, are interested in altcoins however, despite the fact that many are trading at a 5x discount. Institutional investors may be cautious, but they’re not foolish.
Some altcoins will continue to have some speculative value for the foreseeable future. But just like the now infamous tulips, the hysteria will eventually subside. We are already witnessing the first phases of that slide and even though most of the bag holders react emotionally to articles that criticize their coins, I am just observing the developments on the market. You better start emotionally detaching yourself from your “great sounding” coin because if goes nowhere, ideas are worthless without execution and real users that see value in the project.
Our XMR Price Prediction for 2019
XMR , as the rest of the market, is tied at the hip of bitcoin’s price action. If bitcoin embarks on another bull run, XMR can hope for one as well. Since that is very unlikely, don’t expect much to change for XMR price-wise in this year. So 2019 will be a year of boring sideways action with minor bitcoin ignited jumps and slumps.
The main currency in cryptocurrency markets is Bitcoin and given this, altcoins tend to fuel Bitcoin runs and Bitcoin tends to do the same in return. Given this relationship, Bitcoin price movements (or lack thereof) tend to effect altcoin prices.
When Bitcoin goes up swiftly, it will likely:
- Suppress or depress altcoins as money flows into Bitcoin;
- Or, take altcoins along for the ride
In cases when Bitcoin plunges, it will likely:
- Depress altcoins as money flows into fiat;
- Or, cause altcoins to boom as money flows into them, but this is rarely the case.
When Bitcoin moves sideways, it will likely:
- Cause altcoins to mimic that as traders wait for a clear sign on the direction of the market;
- Or, cause altcoins to flourish as traders look for returns in altcoins and try to get favorable trades in terms of BTC pairs.
To summarize, Bitcoin is the focal point of the crypto market in many ways, and with BTC trading pairs on every exchange, the gravity of Bitcoin is hard to evade.
The majority of projects will fail — some startups are created just to gather funds and disappear, some would not handle the competition, but most are just ideas that look good on paper, but in reality, are useless for the market.
Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum said:
“There are some good ideas, there are a lot of very bad ideas, and there are a lot of very, very bad ideas, and quite a few scams as well”
As a result, over 95% of successful ICOs and cryptocurrency projects will fail and their investors will lose money. The other 5% of projects will become the new Apple, Google or Alibaba in the cryptoindustry. Will XMR be among those 5%?
Monero has stood the test of time. It’s growth over the last few years has been consistent (200-fold growth) and likely to continue in the middle to long term.
From an investment perspective, even if you personally do not require privacy and anonymity in your transactions, it is undeniable that a significant chunk of the world’s market desire it. This makes investing in Monero a fairly obvious decision.
Monero has been gaining wide acceptance in privacy-centric sectors – which also includes controversial platforms such as websites on the darknet. This raises some concerns around Monero’s acceptability in the long term and whether it’ll face regulatory hurdles. But on the other hand, it is also a sign of its prowess as a privacy-centric coin.
With many other mainstream brands also beginning to accept Monero, its future does look bright. Its developers have exhibited solid dedication to the project, with frequent updates and efforts to keep the network thriving and secured.
All of this summed up means one thing: XMR might live through couple of orchestrated and, for a regular trader, completely unpredictable pumps but the majority of time will be murky sideways trading with small volume and no significant interest from the market.
Price will heavily depend on what BTC will do and since many analysts think BTC will not be making big moves in this year, it is hard to expect XMR will do them either. The price will probably stagnate and record slow-moving depreciation or appreciation depending on the team activity, potential technological breakthrough or high-level partnership.
Market prediction for Monero XMR Price 2019
With the market being completely unpredictable, forecasting the cryptocurrency price is really more of a gamble and luck rather than a data driven guesstimate.
Let’s throw a glance at the eminent publications and personalities, and their predictions regarding the XMR price, which will give us another point of view to consider:
Walletinvestor is a popular website that does technical analysis-based price predictions of various cryptocurrencies. According to them, XMR is expected to drop heavily to $16.38 in one year.
It is a forecasting agency which is specialized to predict the financial market, which has even predicted more than 100 cryptocurrencies. LongForecast predicts that Monero might be in the range of $554-$638 in April 2020 and go up to $810- $945 by December 2020.
Trading beasts display that Monero can reach around $150 within a year which means it can roughly reach about $200 by 2020.
Profit Confidential shares the prediction data based on factors like the current market trends, the technology, and the team. They predicted that Monero might soar up to $350 by the end of 2019.
Cryptoground predicts that XMR might rise to $118 by the end of 2019. They even added their version of XMR price prediction 2024, where they stated that XMR might reach $496 by 2024.
Digitalcoinprice gave a slightly positive prediction saying that by 2019 end, XMR might be just 30-40% more valuable than now – $87 per coin.